Gold and silver prices fell for the fourth time in five sessions Friday, deepening weekly losses that totaled 2.2% for gold and 0.4% for silver. The decline for gold snaps a two-week winning streak.
On Friday, gold for December delivery turned down $7.70, or 0.6%, to settle at $1,309.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"There doesn’t seem to be a lot of fear yet priced into financial markets (from the shutdown), and until there is, I don’t think gold will do much," Reuters quoted Michael Lewis, Deutsche Bank’s global head of commodity research.
Trading action on Tuesday kicked off a new month and quarter. Last month gold prices fell 5% but they still soared 8.4% for the quarter — a first quarterly gain since the three-month period ended Sept. 28, 2012. For the year-to-date, gold has tumbled $365.90, or 21.8%.
Gold Forecasts – Prices Higher
More than a few analysts and traders missed the call last week when they forecasted higher gold prices for this week. Stronger safe-haven demand was expected. Despite the miss, expectations are higher for gold prices next week, based on the latest surveys.
This week’s survey from Kitco News has 10 participants seeing higher gold prices, 6 expecting them lower and 5 seeing them sideways or unchanged.
"Neither bulls, bears nor fence-sitters had an outright majority in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey, although the largest number of responses called for gold to be higher next week," notes Kitco.
"Many describe the precious metal’s direction over the coming week as a tough call due to the uncertainty over how long the U.S. government will be shut down by a political stalemate on a continuing resolution over the budget, with another fight looming over the debt ceiling later this month."
Bloomberg News reports that analysts are bullish for a third straight week. By the numbers, 18 surveyed expect higher gold prices next week with 8 bearish and 4 neutral.
Silver, Platinum and Palladium Futures
Like gold, silver has declined in four of the last five sessions. On Friday, silver for December delivery slipped 3.4 cents, or 0.2%, to $21.75 an ounce. It’s 0.4% weekly loss amounts to a modest 8 cents.
Silver surged 11.5% in the July to September period, also notching its first quarterly gains since the third quarter ended Sept. 28, 2012.
PGM’s bucked the down trend Friday but also settled lower than a week ago. In their daily and weekly breakdowns:
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January platinum rose $14.70, or 1.1%, to $1,388 an ounce. It dropped 2.2% on the week.
- Palladium for December delivery gained $1.75, or 0.3%, to $701.95 an ounce. It sank 4.1% on the week.
The following grid offers a bird’s-eye view of the month-to-date, quarterly, and year-to-date percent changes across precious metals futures:
| New York Precious Metals Gains / Losses (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month-To-Date | 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | 3rd Quarter | YTD 2013 | |
| Silver | 0.2 | -6.3 | -23.3 | 11.5 | -28.0 |
| Gold | -1.3 | -4.8 | -31.3 | 8.4 | -21.8 |
| Platinum | -1.7 | 2.1 | -14.9 | 5.4 | -10.0 |
| Palladium | -3.5 | 9.2 | -14.0 | 10.1 | -0.2 |
London Fix Precious Metals
London precious metals on Friday were mixed for a seventh consecutive day. When comparing the Thursday PM to Friday PM London fix prices:
- Gold dipped $6.25, or 0.5%, to $1,309.75 an ounce,
- Silver added 8 cents, or 0.4%, to $21.65 an ounce,
- Platinum gained $13, or 0.9%, to $1,386 an ounce, and
- Palladium was flat at $706 an ounce
On the week, silver inched up 0.2% while other precious metals in London registered declines totaling 2.3% for gold, 2.1% for platinum and 2.6% for palladium.
The following grid summarizes the month-to-date, quarterly, and year-to-date changes in London fixings:
| London Precious Metals Gains / Losses (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month-To-Date | 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | 3rd Quarter | YTD 2013 | |
| Silver | -0.1 | -4.0 | -34.1 | 15.0 | -27.7 |
| Gold | -1.3 | -4.4 | -25.4 | 11.3 | -21.3 |
| Platinum | -1.8 | 3.5 | -16.4 | 7.1 | -9.0 |
| Palladium | -2.8 | 10.2 | -16.5 | 12.9 | 1.0 |
U.S. Mint Bullion Sales in October
Sales levels for United States Mint bullion coins were nearly the same as a week ago. In the weekly bullion sales breakdowns:
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Silver coins climbed 702,000 ounces compared to the prior two weekly gains of 675,000 ounces. Sales splits were 675,000 ounces in American Silver Eagles and 27,000 ounces in America the Beautiful Five Ounce Silver Bullion Coins. Both series have year-to-date sales well higher than last year, and the Silver Eagles remain on track for a record year.
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Gold coins added 8,000 ounces compared to last week’s 8,500 ounces. Sales splits were 3,500 ounces in 22-karat American Gold Eagles and 4,500 ounces in 24-karat American Gold Buffalo coins. Sales since April have slowed significantly for Gold Eagles.
In coin totals are the latest daily, October and year-to-date U.S. Mint bullion sales figures:
| American Eagle and Buffalo Bullion Sales | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday Sales | Last Week | Weekly Sales | October Sales | YTD Sales | |
| $50 American Gold Eagle Bullion Coins | 0 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 607,000 |
| $25 American Gold Eagle Bullion Coins | 0 | 3,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 54,000 |
| $10 American Gold Eagle Bullion Coins | 0 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 106,000 |
| $5 American Gold Eagle Bullion Coins | 0 | 0 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 470,000 |
| $50 American Buffalo Gold Bullion Coins | 2,000 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 204,500 |
| White Mountain 5 oz. Silver Bullion Coins | Sold Out | 35,000 | |||
| Perry’s Victory 5 oz. Silver Bullion Coins | 0 | 0 | 1,200 | 1,200 | 26,200 |
| Great Basin 5 oz. Silver Bullion Coins | 0 | 0 | 2,200 | 2,200 | 27,200 |
| Fort McHenry 5 oz. Silver Bullion Coins | 0 | 0 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 27,000 |
| American Silver Eagle Bullion Coins | 0 | 675,000 | 675,000 | 187,000 | 36,275,000 |
For a breakdown of bullion coin sales for September, read this coin news article.
Current US Silver Coin Melt Values
Silver through the first few days of October is nearly unchanged; keeping melt values of silver coins pretty much the same. That is not the case for the year so far with silver’s steep fall since the end of 2012. The grid below shows melt values of older circulating U.S. coins that were produced with 90% silver. These coins, at least those that have little to no numismatic worth because they are too common or too worn, are the ones often sought for their silver values.
| US Silver Coins | Silver Coin Melt Values (12/31/2012) | Silver Coin Melt Values (9/30/2013) | Silver Coin Melt Values (10/4/2013) | Net Change in October | Net Change Year-To-Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1942-1945 Jefferson Nickels | $1.68 | $1.22 | $1.22 | $0.00 | -$0.47 |
| 1892-1916 Barber Dimes | $2.17 | $1.57 | $1.57 | $0.00 | -$0.60 |
| 1916-1945 Mercury Dimes | $2.17 | $1.57 | $1.57 | $0.00 | -$0.60 |
| 1946-1964 Roosevelt Dimes | $2.17 | $1.57 | $1.57 | $0.00 | -$0.60 |
| 1892-1916 Barber Quarters | $5.42 | $3.92 | $3.92 | -$0.01 | -$1.50 |
| 1916-1930 Standing Liberty 25c | $5.42 | $3.92 | $3.92 | -$0.01 | -$1.50 |
| 1932-1964 Washington Quarters | $5.42 | $3.92 | $3.92 | -$0.01 | -$1.50 |
| 1892-1915 Barber Half Dollars | $10.83 | $7.84 | $7.83 | -$0.01 | -$3.00 |
| 1916-1947 Walking Liberty 50c | $10.83 | $7.84 | $7.83 | -$0.01 | -$3.00 |
| 1948-1963 Franklin 50c | $10.83 | $7.84 | $7.83 | -$0.01 | -$3.00 |
| 1964 Kennedy Half Dollars | $10.83 | $7.84 | $7.83 | -$0.01 | -$3.00 |
| 1965-1970 Kennedy Half Dollars | $4.43 | $3.21 | $3.20 | $0.00 | -$1.23 |
| 1878-1921 Morgan Dollars | $23.16 | $16.77 | $16.74 | -$0.02 | -$6.42 |
| 1921-1935 Peace Dollars | $23.16 | $16.77 | $16.74 | -$0.02 | -$6.42 |
| 1971-1976 Silver Eisenhower $1s | $9.47 | $6.85 | $6.84 | -$0.01 | -$2.62 |
| 1986-2013 American Eagles | $29.95 | $21.68 | $21.65 | -$0.03 | -$8.30 |
| 2010-2013 ATB Silver Coins | $149.75 | $108.40 | $108.25 | -$0.15 | -$41.50 |
Silver coin melt values are based on London fix silver prices at the end of 2012 and September and on October 4, 2013. Use this site’s coin calculator to find values of the above silver coins by quantities.
